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Juniper Research anticipates a sharp decline in cryptocurrency transactions during 2015. As compared to 2014, the value of Bitcoin and Altcoin transactions is expected to drop by approximately half, from $71 billion to $30 billion.

But volumes are surging and expected to double by 2017 reports author Dr. Windsor Holden. He believes this increased volume, however, is not enough to offset the decline in value and does not see Bitcoin reaching the volumes needed for mass adoption.

The report identifies the need for immediate settlements as a key to positive growth. Dr. Holden states, “It is likely that we will see the technologies behind cryptocurrency deployed in areas such as real-time transactional settlement. Ripple Labs is already focusing overwhelming on that approach and in the medium term we may see a role evolution to this end amongst other cryptocurrency players.”

Contrary to libertarian ideology, the report suggests the use of licensed, regulated exchanges could promote stable currency values. This, in turn, could encourage an increase in retail adoption. Dr. Holden is quick to add: “It doesn’t necessarily follow that the more retailers that deploy it, the more people will use it.”

He sees an unregulated arena destroying consumer confidence: the Mt Gox exchange debacle, BitStamp hot wallet thefts, and MyCoin’s scam accusation, as recent examples. But is regulation the answer?

The full paper, titled “The Future of Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin & Altcoin Impact & Opportunities 2015-2019″, is available for a fee. Before pulling out your credit card, some questions beg to be answered:

  • Who is Dr. Windsor Holden, and what makes him an credible expert in the cryptocurrency space?
  • Since this is his first assessment, what is his track record?
  • The report admits to be past-data based, but with the short history of cryptocurrencies, how can anyone claim forecasting accuracy?

 

We welcome your feedback.  Would you purchase this academic paper and rely on its analysis?

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